Historical education / 2024-08-02
Jobs softened. Both Treasury tenors fell.
The July jobs release reported slower hiring and higher unemployment. Daily yields declined across the 2-year and 10-year curve.
Confidence not assessed. Daily association, not proof of causation.
Observation / sourced
What the daily curve records
U.S. Treasury nominal par yields, in percent. A yield change is not a bond return.
| Observation | 2-year | 10-year |
|---|---|---|
| 4.16% | 3.99% | |
| 3.88% | 3.80% | |
| Change Calculated | −28 bp | −19 bp |
Interpretation / editorial hypotheses
Mechanism & alternatives
These explanations are proposed from the cited facts, not statements made by the sources.
Possible mechanism
Softer employment could lower the expected policy-rate path, consistent with the 2-year yield decline.
Alternatives
Demand for safer assets or changing term premia could also lower yields. The table does not measure flows, positioning or policy expectations.
What would challenge the explanation?
Check announcement-window timing and separately sourced policy expectations and flows. A fall before the release or no expectation change would weaken policy repricing as an explanation.
No forecast consensus or intraday series is stored. Neither a forecast miss nor a recession probability is calculated.
Inspect the evidence
Sourced / Bureau of Labor Statistics
July 2024 employment release (opens new tab)
114,000 additional nonfarm jobs and 4.3% unemployment. Release at 08:30 EDT. Archived release figures, not subsequently revised payroll estimates.
Original scheduled release: 2024-08-02 · 12:30 UTC.
Sourced / U.S. Treasury
Daily Treasury par yield curve · 2024 (opens new tab)
2-year and 10-year nominal par yields; percent units. Daily curve estimates, not instrument prices or intraday candles.
Observation date: 2024-08-02. Publication time not established.