MarketAxisIX separates observed records, deterministic calculations, hypotheses, and educational prose so every conclusion can be inspected.
Live Research uses sourced, read-only Binance Spot observations and deterministic detection. Research also includes ten retrospective 2024 Treasury case studies with official BLS/Fed sources. The separate demonstration dossiers and practice replays remain fictional.
Absolute return, abnormal return, anomalies, ranking, and the uncalibrated evidence index are deterministic. Every index exposes its factors, normalized weights, contributions, formula version, and calibration state.
MarketAxisIX ranks evidentiary support and competing explanations. Confidence is not proof of causation, probability that a claim is true, expected return, or a trade instruction.
Live crypto is venue-specific and may be stale or unavailable. Historical Replay has a validated boundary but no public production corpus yet. Analyst mutations remain disabled without durable reviewer identity and storage.
Current sourced observations and deterministic calculations. Explanations remain hypotheses, not trading instructions.
A frozen point-in-time case built from attributable archived records. Later evidence is excluded until its original availability time.
Fictional scenarios for learning the workflow. Nothing in this mode is an actionable market observation.
round(sum(score × weight) / sum(weight))Current demonstration scores are not outcome-calibrated and report a calibration sample of zero. This uncalibrated evidence index is not an empirical probability.
10 selected 2024 days compare official Treasury 2-year and 10-year nominal par yields with BLS or Fed archived releases. Change = (event-day yield − prior-observation yield) × 100 basis points, rounded to two decimals. This is not a bond return, abnormal return or estimate of a causal effect.
Archives were verified on October 3, 2026. Treasury dates are not publication times or original-vintage snapshots. The June CPI archive was reissued that day; its correction time is unknown. These retrospective cases do not enter point-in-time replay or strategy backtesting. Editorial hypotheses, alternatives and missing inputs remain separate from sourced facts. Confidence is not assessed and curated cases do not establish a base rate.
A sensitivity exercise using the published weighted-mean method. It does not edit event records or replace analyst judgment.
Evidence component / input score
Outcomes retain their signal version and legacy audit grouping. Uncalibrated evidence index groups are not certainty ratings. Corrections and retractions remain visible; small samples are never presented as calibrated proof.
Reaction windows reveal seeded evidence progressively; they do not reconstruct real information arrival.
40 points direction, 30 magnitude proximity, and 30 confidence proximity against a fictional record.
Deterministic educational labels can qualify or suppress a simulation; neither output establishes causation.