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Data & methodology

Evidence before
explanation.

MarketLens separates observed records, deterministic calculations, hypotheses, and educational prose so every conclusion can be inspected.

Analysis ledger / four boundaries

What the system knows—and what it does not

01

What is real?

The interface, calculation code, provider boundaries, confidence weights, and methodology are functional. All event names, people, organizations, quotes-free source records, prices, volumes, and reactions in this release are fictional demonstrations.

02

What is calculated?

Absolute return is the percentage price change. Abnormal return is asset return minus benchmark return. Volume anomaly compares observed volume with a baseline. Confidence is a normalized weighted mean of visible components.

03

How conclusions are phrased

MarketLens classifies relationships from confirmed direct impact through no measurable reaction. A high confidence score means the evidence is stronger; it never proves causation.

04

Known limitations

The current release has no live feeds, user accounts, analyst mutations, outbound alerts, or persistent watchlists. Demonstration time series remain intentionally simplified for education.

Confidence composition

Visible weights, revisable evidence

Source reliability18%
Timestamp alignment17%
Asset relevance16%
Movement magnitude14%
Volume10%
Novelty10%
Competing-event clarity8%
Cross-asset confirmation7%
Scores update when evidence changes. Future versions will store provider runs, calculation versions, model versions, reviewer decisions, and a complete audit history.
Confidence laboratory

Move the evidence.
Watch confidence respond.

A sensitivity exercise using the published weighted-mean method. It does not edit event records or replace analyst judgment.

81
of 100
high confidence

Evidence component / input score

01

Replay frames

Reaction windows reveal seeded evidence progressively; they do not reconstruct real information arrival.

02

Calibration score

40 points direction, 30 magnitude proximity, and 30 confidence proximity against a fictional record.

03

Regime & strategy rules

Deterministic educational labels can qualify or suppress a simulation; neither output establishes causation.

Educational use only. MarketLens does not provide personalized investment advice, trading signals, or guarantees about future market behavior.