MarketLens separates observed records, deterministic calculations, hypotheses, and educational prose so every conclusion can be inspected.
Analysis ledger / four boundaries
What the system knows—and what it does not
01
What is real?
The interface, calculation code, provider boundaries, confidence weights, and methodology are functional. All event names, people, organizations, quotes-free source records, prices, volumes, and reactions in this release are fictional demonstrations.
02
What is calculated?
Absolute return is the percentage price change. Abnormal return is asset return minus benchmark return. Volume anomaly compares observed volume with a baseline. Confidence is a normalized weighted mean of visible components.
03
How conclusions are phrased
MarketLens classifies relationships from confirmed direct impact through no measurable reaction. A high confidence score means the evidence is stronger; it never proves causation.
04
Known limitations
The current release has no live feeds, user accounts, analyst mutations, outbound alerts, or persistent watchlists. Demonstration time series remain intentionally simplified for education.
Confidence composition
Visible weights, revisable evidence
Source reliability18%
Timestamp alignment17%
Asset relevance16%
Movement magnitude14%
Volume10%
Novelty10%
Competing-event clarity8%
Cross-asset confirmation7%
Scores update when evidence changes. Future versions will store provider runs, calculation versions, model versions, reviewer decisions, and a complete audit history.
Confidence laboratory
Move the evidence. Watch confidence respond.
A sensitivity exercise using the published weighted-mean method. It does not edit event records or replace analyst judgment.
81
of 100
high confidence
Evidence component / input score
01
Replay frames
Reaction windows reveal seeded evidence progressively; they do not reconstruct real information arrival.
02
Calibration score
40 points direction, 30 magnitude proximity, and 30 confidence proximity against a fictional record.
03
Regime & strategy rules
Deterministic educational labels can qualify or suppress a simulation; neither output establishes causation.