Historical education / 2024-03-20
An unchanged target. A larger move at two years.
The Fed held the policy target at 5.25–5.50% and required greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably toward 2% before a reduction. Release at 14:00 EDT. Daily observations describe the day, not an isolated announcement effect.
Confidence not assessed. Daily association, not proof of causation.
Observation / sourced
What the daily curve records
U.S. Treasury nominal par yields, in percent. A yield change is not a bond return.
| Observation | 2-year | 10-year |
|---|---|---|
| 4.68% | 4.30% | |
| 4.59% | 4.27% | |
| Change Calculated | −9 bp | −3 bp |
Interpretation / editorial hypotheses
Mechanism & alternatives
These explanations are proposed from the cited facts, not statements made by the sources.
Possible mechanism
A change in the expected near-term policy path could be consistent with the larger decline in the 2-year yield.
Alternatives
Term premia or demand at different maturities could produce different moves across the curve.
What would challenge the explanation?
Compare licensed intraday rates around the release with independently sourced expectations. A move before the announcement or no corresponding expectation change would weaken the proposed mechanism.
Relative yield changes do not identify a policy-path effect. No expectations or intraday data are stored.
Inspect the evidence
Sourced / Federal Reserve
2024-03-20 FOMC statement (opens new tab)
The Fed held the policy target at 5.25–5.50% and required greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably toward 2% before a reduction. Release at 14:00 EDT.
Original scheduled release: 2024-03-20 · 18:00 UTC.
Sourced / U.S. Treasury
Daily Treasury par yield curve · 2024 (opens new tab)
2-year and 10-year nominal par yields; percent units. Daily curve estimates, not instrument prices or intraday candles.
Observation date: 2024-03-20. Publication time not established.