Historical education / 2024-09-18
The Fed cut. Daily yields still rose.
A half-point policy cut did not translate into lower daily Treasury par yields. This case challenges a simple “cut means yields fall” rule.
Confidence not assessed. Daily association, not proof of causation.
Observation / sourced
What the daily curve records
U.S. Treasury nominal par yields, in percent. A yield change is not a bond return.
| Observation | 2-year | 10-year |
|---|---|---|
| 3.59% | 3.65% | |
| 3.61% | 3.70% | |
| Change Calculated | +2 bp | +5 bp |
Interpretation / editorial hypotheses
Mechanism & alternatives
These explanations are proposed from the cited facts, not statements made by the sources.
Possible mechanism
Prior expectations and the future policy path matter alongside today’s cut. Prior pricing could explain the mismatch, but no expectation series is included.
Alternatives
Growth views, term premia or positioning could contribute to the daily rise. These channels remain untested, not established drivers.
What would challenge the explanation?
Inspect licensed intraday rates and pre-announcement expectations. Without them, this case cannot distinguish an anticipated cut from other daily drivers.
The policy target and Treasury yields are different quantities. The daily change does not imply that the announcement caused yields to rise.
Inspect the evidence
Sourced / Federal Reserve
September 2024 FOMC statement (opens new tab)
Policy target reduced by 0.50 percentage point to 4.75–5.00%, citing inflation progress and the balance of risks. Release at 14:00 EDT.
Original scheduled release: 2024-09-18 · 18:00 UTC.
Sourced / U.S. Treasury
Daily Treasury par yield curve · 2024 (opens new tab)
2-year and 10-year nominal par yields; percent units. Daily curve estimates, not instrument prices or intraday candles.
Observation date: 2024-09-18. Publication time not established.