Historical education / 2024-04-10
March inflation persisted. Daily yields rose.
March CPI-U rose 0.4% month over month, seasonally adjusted, and 3.5% over 12 months. Core CPI rose 0.4% monthly and 3.8% annually. Release at 08:30 EDT. Daily observations describe the day, not an isolated announcement effect.
Confidence not assessed. Daily association, not proof of causation.
Observation / sourced
What the daily curve records
U.S. Treasury nominal par yields, in percent. A yield change is not a bond return.
| Observation | 2-year | 10-year |
|---|---|---|
| 4.74% | 4.36% | |
| 4.97% | 4.55% | |
| Change Calculated | +23 bp | +19 bp |
Interpretation / editorial hypotheses
Mechanism & alternatives
These explanations are proposed from the cited facts, not statements made by the sources.
Possible mechanism
Persistent inflation could raise expected policy rates or inflation compensation, consistent with higher nominal yields.
Alternatives
Supply, other news or positioning could contribute to the daily rise; nominal yields do not separate real rates from inflation compensation.
What would challenge the explanation?
Compare licensed intraday rates around the release with independently sourced expectations. A move before the announcement or no corresponding expectation change would weaken the proposed mechanism.
No survey consensus is included, so this case does not claim a forecast surprise or estimate its impact.
Inspect the evidence
Sourced / Bureau of Labor Statistics
March 2024 CPI release (opens new tab)
March CPI-U rose 0.4% month over month, seasonally adjusted, and 3.5% over 12 months. Core CPI rose 0.4% monthly and 3.8% annually. Release at 08:30 EDT.
Original scheduled release: 2024-04-10 · 12:30 UTC.
Sourced / U.S. Treasury
Daily Treasury par yield curve · 2024 (opens new tab)
2-year and 10-year nominal par yields; percent units. Daily curve estimates, not instrument prices or intraday candles.
Observation date: 2024-04-10. Publication time not established.